Recent events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine left countries dealing with serious challenges, including, among others, supply chain disruptions and bottlenecks in the supply of energy resources. This, in turn, led to rapid inflation growth, substantial changes to international trade and made both monetary and fiscal policies react on an unprecedented scale. All this set in motion massive adjustment processes across households, firms and policy institutions.
To deepen our understanding of those mechanisms, Lietuvos bankas, Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) and the Central Bank Research Association’s International Trade and Macroeconomics and Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Research Programs (CEBRA) are jointly organising a conference to discuss current issues in the areas of international economics, trade economics and macroeconomics.
Topics to be covered during the conference include, but are not limited to:
- Macroeconomic and international trade effects of large global shocks (geopolitical shifts, regionalization, and international trade developments; the role of international trade in post-shock economic recovery; exchange rates, economic adjustments, and monetary policy, etc.)
- Shock transmission, adjustment channels and heterogeneity of the effects (firm/household heterogeneity and the monetary policy transmission; unintended consequences of adjustments, etc.)
- Policy responses to large global shocks (central banking responses to current global challenges, fiscal/monetary policy mix in the adjustment response, etc.)
- Global shocks challenges for monetary policy (international spillovers of monetary policy, inflationary impact of adjustment, Phillips curve’s nonlinearities, etc.)
Programme
| Thursday, September 19 | |
| 9:00-9:30 | Registration and welcome coffee |
| 9:30-9:45 | Welcome speech and opening remarks
|
| 9:45-11:15 | Session 1: Networks and Spillovers Session Chair: Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis University) Presenter: Leslie Sheng Shen (FRB Boston) Discussant: Sergi Basco (University of Barcelona) Presenter: Mishel Ghassibe (CREi) Discussant: Basile Grassi (Università Bocconi) |
| 11:15-11:45 | Coffee break |
| 11:45-13:00 | Keynote Lecture 1: Fixed costs, product heterogeneity and the force of competition (3.7 MB download icon) Prof. Jaume Ventura (CREI, UPF, BSE) Introduction by Krzysztof Makarski (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| 13:00-14:00 | Lunch |
| 14:00-15:30 | Session 2: Sanctions Session Chair: Ziran Ding (Lietuvos bankas, Kaunas University of Technology) Presenter: Povilas Lastauskas (IMF) Discussant: Julian Hinz (Bielefeld University, Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
Discussant: Antoine Berthou (Banque de France) |
| 15:30-16:00 | Coffee break |
| 16:00-17:15 | Keynote Lecture 2: Optimal Exchange Rate Policy (1.1 MB download icon) Prof. Oleg Itskhoki (Harvard University) Introduction by Aurelija Proškutė (Lietuvos bankas) |
| Friday, September 20 | |
| 9:30-9:45 | Registration and welcome coffee |
| 9:45-11:15 | Session 3: Policies in an Uncertain World Session Chair: Swapnil Singh (Lietuvos bankas, Kaunas University of Technology) Presenter: Alex Grimaud (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) Discussant: Jose-Elias Gallegos (Banco de España)
Discussant: Michał Brzoza-Brzezina (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| 11:15-11:30 | Coffee break |
| 11:30-12:45 | Keynote Lecture 3: Policy spillovers when external shocks persist and domestic activity diverges (524.2 KB download icon) Catherine L. Mann (Bank of England) Introduction by Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis University) |
| 12:45-13:45 | Lunch |
| 13:45-15:15 | Session 4: Global Shocks Session Chair: Žymantas Budrys (Lietuvos bankas, Vilnius University) Presenter: Saroj Bhattarai (University of Texas at Austin) Discussant: Giacomo Mangiante (Banca d’Italia)
Discussant: Jakub Muck (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| 15:15-15:30 | Closing remarks |
Organising Committee
Julian di Giovanni (Federal Reserve Bank of New York and CEBRA), Paweł Kopiec (NBP), Andrei A. Levchenko (University of Michigan and CEBRA), Krzysztof Makarski (NBP), Aurelija Proškutė (Lietuvos bankas), Robert Rich (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and CEBRA), Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis University and CEBRA), Swapnil Singh (Lietuvos bankas), Milda Savickaitė (Lietuvos bankas)