Publications

This paper studies the link between demographic factors and labour shares as well as tries to answer the question whether population ageing is responsible for the global decline in labour shares. We found that the link depends on the elasticity of substitution between labour and capital as production factors. Given the empirical estimates of this parameter, we conclude that population ageing is not responsible for the global decline in labour shares. On the contrary, it reduces the speed of this decline.

JEL Codes: E25, C51, J14.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

This paper provides an explanation as to why population ageing is associated with deflationary processes. For this reason we create an overlapping-generations model (OLG) with money created by credits (inside money) and intergenerational trade. In other words, we combine a neoclassical OLG model with post-Keynesian monetary theory. The model links demographic factors such as fertility rates and longevity to prices. We show that lower fertility rates lead to smaller demand for credits, and lower money creation, which in turn causes a decline in prices. Changes in longevity affect prices through real savings and the capital market. Furthermore, a few links between interest rates and inflation are addressed; they arise in the general equilibrium and are not thoroughly discussed in literature. Long-run results are derived analytically; short-run dynamics are simulated numerically.

JEL Codes: E12, E31, E41, J10.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

The central question of this paper is how international trade and specialisation are affected by different designs of pension schemes and asymmetric demographic changes. In a model with two goods, two countries and two production factors, we find that countries with a relatively large unfunded pension scheme will specialise in the production of labour intensive goods. If these countries are hit by a negative demographic shock, this specialisation will intensify in the long run, which is contrary to the prediction of the classical Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model. Eventually, these countries may even completely specialise in the production of those goods. The effects spill over to other countries, which will move away from complete specialisation in capital intensive goods as the relative size of their labour intensive goods sector will also increase. 

JEL Codes: E27, F16, H55, J19.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

This paper discusses a bootstrap-based test, which checks if finite moments exist, and indicates cases of possible misapplication. The analysis indicates that a procedure for finding the smallest power to which observations need to be raised, such as the test rejects a hypothesis that the corresponding moment is finite, works poorly as an estimator of the tail index or moment estimator. This is the case especially for very low- and high-order moments. Several examples of correct usage of the test are also shown. The main result is derived analytically, and a Monte-Carlo experiment is presented.

MSC2010 Codes: 62G10, 65C05.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

This paper analyses the link between migration and sizes of countries. It explains why larger countries (in terms of population) have lower shares of migrants in their populations. First, the data is analysed; next, a macroeconomic model with international trade and migration, explaining the stylised facts, is developed. The model includes country size, which gives rise to cheaper country-specific goods produced in a large country relative to the goods produced in a smaller country. Higher wages in the small country spur immigration to it.

JEL Codes: F16, F22.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

This paper presents a simple condition for optimal asymmetric labour (capital) taxation/subsidization in a two-sector model with logarithmic utilities and Cobb-Douglas production functions, linked to demographic factors: fertility rate and longevity. The paper shows that depending on parameter values, it may be optimal to tax or subsidize labour in the sectors. If it is optimal to tax the investment-goods sector, a Pareto-improving tax reform is possible. Larger output elasticities of capital in the sectors reduce the possibilities of a Pareto-improving reform, while population ageing in terms of higher longevity enhances the possibilities of welfare improvement for all generations. Fertility rates do not affect optimal taxation.

JEL Codes: E62, H21, J10.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.