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As house price growth accelerated during the pandemic, housing affordability in Lithuania started to deteriorate for the first time in a decade. This trend did not last long and, as price growth slowed down and incomes continued to rise rapidly, signs of improving affordability have already become visible from 2023. Although the deterioration in housing affordability in Lithuania was a temporary phenomenon caused by strong external shocks, it is important that housing policy in Lithuania provides the conditions for a structurally sustainable level of affordability. In this study, the Bank of Lithuania has analysed various indicators of housing affordability and the demand and supply factors that may it. The results of the study have led to four main orientations for sustainable housing policy: to achieve sustainable housing demand developments, a larger and more flexible supply of quality housing, meeting the housing needs of socially vulnerable people, and creating a long-term and common housing policy strategy.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

Available only in Lithuanian

Similar to eurozone as a whole, in Lithuania, the commercial real estate sector is closely linked with the financial system and the real economy: loans secured by commercial properties account for almost a third of the total bank loan portfolio, and the development of housing and other buildings creates about an eighth of Lithuania's GDP. However, so far both in Lithuania and across Europe, this sector has been supervised quite unsystematically, and the lack of harmonized indicators and data complicates monitoring at the international level. Aiming to ensure timely identification of risks to financial stability and improve international data comparability, the Bank of Lithuania, following the ESRB recommendation and methodology, has developed a commercial real estate market supervision framework. The main purpose of this article is to presents the developed framework. The article, alongside specific guidelines on how to consistently assess risks arising from the commercial real estate market, discusses methodological and data gaps that continue to pose challenges in ensuring a comprehensive risk assessment.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

Available only in Lithuanian