Publications

This document offers an ex-ante assessment of the proposal to allow the withdrawal of funds from the second pillar of the Lithuanian pension system. First, we use a quantitative macroeconomic model to quantify, under alternative scenarios, the potential impact that the withdrawal of Pillar II funds might have on the economy in the medium term. Second, we offer a long-term view of the current pension replacement rates and the consequences that the withdrawal of funds might have for those individuals who decide to opt-out of Pillar II.

We study the welfare implications of distortions, such as markups and returns to scale, when firm entry is slow to adjust, allowing quasi-rents to persist for longer. First, we present evidence on differences in speed of firm entry adjustment across US industries. In some industries, such as hospitality, firms respond rapidly to profit opportunities, arbitraging quasi-rent quickly. Whereas, in other industries, such as construction, entrants respond slowly, sustaining incumbents’ quasi-rents for longer. We develop a model of sluggish firm adjustment, which shows that the sluggishness of firm adjustment magnifies the welfare costs of distortions. We study a model with a fixed cost and increasing marginal cost such that a perfectly competitive equilibrium exists, and in the absence of distortions market and planner equilibrium coincide with firms operating at minimum efficient scale. We contrast outcomes when there is curvature on the demand-side of the economy from markups and curvature on the supply-side of the economy from returns to scale, adding counter-evidence to the perception that the setups are isomorphic.

Keywords: Markups, Firm Entry, Returns to Scale, Welfare

JEL codes: E32, D21, D43, L13, C62

We develop a model connecting financial shocks, capital investment decisions by firms, and change in measured aggregate productivity using a dynamic general equilibrium model. Data shows that post the 2008 crisis, firms changed their allocation between assets of varying depreciation rates as credit conditions tightened, which is connected to changes in measured TFP. We propose a model that shows the mechanism of an adverse shock to credit access causing firms to change the balance sheet portfolio composition of productive assets. This reallocation of assets leads to an increase in measured productivity.

Keywords: Financial crisis, measured productivity, collateral, capital assets, credit constraint.

JEL Classification: D5, E13, E22, E32, G01, G11, G23.