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Abstract
During the past thirty years, euro area countries have undergone significant changes and experienced diverse shocks. We aim to investigate which variables have consistently supported growth in this tumultuous period. The paper unfolds in three parts. First, we assemble a set of 35 real, financial, monetary and institutional variables for all euro area countries covering the period between 1990Q1 and 2016Q4. Second, using the Weighted-Average Least Squares (WALS) method, as well as other techniques, we gather clues about which variables to select. Third, we quantify the impact of various determinants of growth in the short and long runs. Our main finding is the positive and robust role of institutional reforms on long-term growth for all countries in the sample. An improvement in competitiveness matters for growth in the overall euro area in the long run as well as a decline in sovereign and systemic stress. The debt over GDP negatively influences growth for the periphery, but only in the short run. Property and equity prices have a significant impact only in the short run, whereas the loans to NFCs positively affect the core euro area. An increase in global GDP also supports growth.
JEL Codes: C23, E40, F33, F43.
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.
Who did it? A European Detective Story. Was it Real, Financial, Monetary and/or Institutional: Tracking Growth in the Euro Area with an Atheoretical Tool
Euro Area growth and European institutional reforms
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Abstract
Euro area countries have experienced profound economic, financial and institutional changes over the last three decades. GDP growth has been very volatile, and very uneven, across countries. Which factors played a role in stirring growth and/or reducing it? We provide an atheoretical toolkit looking at a large set of real, financial, monetary and institutional variables, as possible factors behind fluctuations and differences in growth rates among euro area countries since 1990. The main outcome stresses the key positive role for long-run growth of higher European institutional integration, overall and for the periphery in specific. This result is robust across specifications and setups. If we split the European institutional integration in its main components, we can see a significant positive role for financial and political integration in the long-run. However the first seems to have beneficial effects for the core only while the opposite holds for the political integration which influences positively the periphery.
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.