Publications

This paper studies the margins and heterogeneity of adjustments to trade shocks by estimating how Covid-19 restrictions affected imports and exports. We use data from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia on foreign trade at the level of the firm and the partner country and at monthly frequency from January 2019 to December 2020. The focus is on the short-term adjustment and on the first wave of the pandemic. We find that the adjustment to the restrictions mostly occurs through the intensive margin, meaning trade values are reduced rather than trade in certain markets or products ceasing. It is further observed that quantity played a more important role in the adjustment process than prices and that both upstream and downstream restrictions played an equally important role in the decline of foreign trade. It is shown that differentiated products that are difficult to replace are responsible for this adjustment pattern.

Keywords: transmission of shocks, input-output linkages, global value chains, Covid-19, workplace closing.

JEL codes: F14, F61, D22

We investigate how firms adjust to the introduction of sudden, unanticipated and eventually long-lasting economic sanctions. In 2014, Russia introduced sanctions on imports from Europe, which caused an abrupt negative shock to the food production sector in Lithuania. We find that part-time employment is used as the first shock absorber, followed by investment and full-time employment. At the same time, firms dampen shock effects by expanding to other export markets. To rationalize this firm behavior, we provide a theoretical mechanism where forward-looking firms face nonconvexities in the labor market along with heterogeneous variable trade costs.

Keywords: economic sanctions, firm adjustment margins, part-time employment, new export markets.

JEL Classification: D22, D25, F14, F16, F51

This study develops a symmetric two-country New-Keynesian general equilibrium model with endogenous growth, Calvo-style price and wage rigidities, and international trade of final consumption goods and intermediate goods. The equilibrium implications of two financial market structures are compared: financial autarky and complete markets. In the case of financial autarky, no international bond is traded. In the case of complete markets, the households have access to a full set of international nominal state-contingent bonds. We find that assuming complete markets instead of financial autarky leads to higher co-movement of most macroeconomic growth rates across countries, higher co-movement of inflation rates across countries, lower uncovered interest rate parity regression coefficients, and a lower correlation between exchange rate growth and consumption growth differentials. These results are mostly in line with US and UK data from 1950-2015, which are split into two samples, 1950-1970 and 1971-2015, in order to be compared to the model with financial autarky and the model with complete markets, respectively.

JEL Codes: E30, E44, F44, G12, O30.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

In this paper we offer a unique firm-level view of the empirical regularities underlying the evolution of the Lithuanian economy over the period of 2000 to 2014. Employing a novel data-set, we investigate key distributional moments of both the financial and real characteristics of Lithuanian firms. We focus in particular on the issues related to productivity, firm birth and death and the associated employment creation and destruction across industries, firm sizes and trade status (exporting vs. non-exporting). We refrain from any structural modeling attempt in order to map out the key economic processes across industries and selected firm characteristics. We uncover similar empirical regularities as already highlighted in the literature: trade participation has substantial benefits on firm productivity, the 2008 recession has had a cleansing effect on the non-tradable sector, firm birth and death are highly pro-cyclical. The richness of the dataset allows us to produce additional insights such as the change in the composition of assets and liabilities over the business cycles (tilting both liabilities and assets towards the short-term) or the increasing share of exporting firms but the constant share of importing ones since 2000.

JEL Codes: D22, D24, E30, J21, J24, J30, L11, L25.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.