Bank of Lithuania
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2018-05-04

No 6. Mihnea Constantinescu, Kristina Griškevičienė. Network-based macro fluctuations: Evidence from Lithuania

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Do inter-sectoral linkages of intermediate products affect the spread of sectoral shocks at the aggregate level in Lithuania, a small and open economy? We answer this question by: i) constructing the domestic sector-by-sector direct requirements table using the Lithuanian interindustry transactions tables, and ii) applying Acemoglu et al. (2012)'s network-based methodology and Gabaix and Ibragimov (2011)'s modified log rank-log size regression to analyse the nature of inter-sectoral linkages. Our results indicate that the direct and indirect inter-sectoral linkages cause aggregate volatility to decay at a rate lower than √n - the rate predicted by the standard diversification argument. Furthermore, indirect linkages play an important role in the above-mentioned process, supporting the findings of Acemoglu et al. (2012). These results suggest that the inter-sectoral network of linkages represent a potential propagation mechanism for idiosyncratic shocks throughout the Lithuanian economy.

JEL Codes: C13, C46, C67, E00.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

Mihnea Constantinescu, Kristina Griškevičienė, Input-Output Linkages, Inter-sectoral Network, Aggregate Volatility, Small- Open Economy, Complexity Economics