Bank of Lithuania
Target group
All results 1
No 9

Global temperature, R&D expenditure, and growth

  • Abstract

    We shed new light on the macroeconomic effects of rising temperatures. In the data, a shock to global temperature dampens research and development (R&D) expenditure growth. This novel empirical evidence is rationalised within a stochastic endogenous growth model. In the model, Temperature shocks undermine economic growth via a drop in R&D. Moreover, temperature risk generates welfare costs of 13.50% of lifetime utility. The government can offset these welfare costs by subsidizing investment with 1.02% or R&D expenditure with 0.52% of total public spending, respectively. Alternatively, it can levy a lump-sum tax on households which finances 0.64% of total public spending.

    JEL Codes: E30, G12, Q00.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.