Scientific conference of the Lithuanian and Polish central banks to discuss economic impact of uncertainty
Today marks the start of the joint scientific conference “Adjustments in and to an Uncertain World”, organised by the Bank of Lithuania, the National Bank of Poland, CEPR and CEBRA. In addition to experts from Lithuania and Poland, presentations will be given and discussions moderated by researchers from the central banks of England and Canada, the Federal Reserve Banks, as well as the best European and US universities. Due to COVID-19 related restrictions, the conference will be held in a virtual format and broadcast online.
“The sovereign debt crisis, Brexit, trade tensions, and, most recently, the pandemic – all of these factors, contributing to uncertainty, have been shaped and reinforced by globalisation. In such times, firms pause investment and hiring, while consumers tend to save more for precautionary reasons. This behaviour can produce long-term scarring effects that are difficult to predict. However, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Uncertainty can be a catalyst for change,” said Vitas Vasiliauskas, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania.
“Recent events also remind us of the value of smart improvisation, intuition and heuristics in driving policy decisions. “Start thinking fast”, to use Daniel Kahneman’s term, as it’s our best and only hope in dealing with the situations our models did not take into account this time. This does not mean that we, policy makers, no longer need research. On the contrary, we need smart research that acknowledges uncertainty and confronts it head on. We need research that adapts and develops fast enough to catch up with dramatic changes in the economy that often outpace our capacity to design and test more models,” said Adam Glapiński, President of the National Bank of Poland, during his speech at the conference.
The scientific conference is divided into four sessions to be broadcast online on 24–25 September from 15:00 (EEST). The economists will present their research and discuss various issues related to monetary policy and uncertainty, corporate behaviour in the current unpredictable environment as well as the impact of uncertainty on trade and macroeconomics.
Presentations will also be given by three invited speakers: Prof Jennifer La’O (Columbia University), Prof Kalina Manova (University College London) and Prof Beata Javorcik (University of Oxford) who is also the Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
The conference is organised by the Bank of Lithuania’s Center for Excellence in Finance and Economic Research (CEFER) in cooperation with the National Bank of Poland (Narodowy Bank Polski), the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA). This is the third joint scientific conference organised by the Lithuanian and Polish central banks – the first one was held in Vilnius (2016), and the second one – in Warsaw (2018).
The first conference day
The second conference day