Bank of Lithuania
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Increased consumption and investment encourage consistent growth of Lithuania’s economy; however, a poorer outlook for the country’s major foreign trade partners, as well as gradually slowing development of domestic demand led to more cautious GDP growth projections for next year. The Bank of Lithuania projects a 3.1 per cent growth in GDP next year, and this is less by 0.2 p.p. than was projected in September.

“Both the country’s domestic economy and export, particularly due to trade restrictions with Russia, will grow slower next year than was projected before. Even though the economy’s growth will still be rather large, both the state and businesses, in planning income, will have to retain a healthy sense of caution,” says Raimondas Kuodis, Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania.

The import restrictions introduced by Russia in August significantly impacted export of Lithuania’s food products: three months after the introduction of these restrictions it decreased by half. Although food product enterprises found alternative markets and began to export to other countries, this export growth was insufficient for compensating the whole recession of export to Russia. The slower-than-projected export increase risk is related to the economic growth projections in the euro area — Lithuania’s most important foreign trade partner. Therefore, the 2015 growth projection for goods and services, compared to projections in the autumn, was decreased by 0.9 p.p. — to 4.4 per cent.

Poorer foreign trade trends are currently offset by growing domestic demand, especially rapidly growing private consumption and the improving situation in the job market. It is projected that next year consumption will increase by 3.6 per cent (the same was projected in September), while the unemployment level will decrease to 9.7 per cent (September projection — 9.9%).

A positive impact on consumption and increase in resident buying power was had by the recent price change trends that were favourable for consumers.

“Global prices of commodities, particularly the rapidly dropping price of oil and low inflation in the euro area allow us to believe that in Lithuania prices will increase at a slower rate than projected,” says Gediminas Šimkus, Director of the Economics and Financial Stability Service of the Bank of Lithuania.

The average annual inflation projection for 2015, compared to earlier projections, was decreased by 0.3 p.p. to 0.9 per cent.

 At the Bank of Lithuania’s website you can become acquainted with the latest medium-term macroeconomic forecasts and presentation.