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Occasional Paper Series

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Occasional papers feature analytical descriptive or discussion articles and extended commentaries prepared by the Bank of Lithuania staff on subjects relevant for central banking. The papers within the series analyse topical questions and issues relevant to the activities of the Bank of Lithuania, introduce the results of analytical and policy work conducted at the institution, explaining its decisions and opinions. Occasional papers target a wider audience, including policymakers, financial analysts, academics, the media and the general public. 

Papers are available in Lithuanian or English.

No 40
2021-10-18

Beyond the Traditional Unemployment Rate during Covid-19 in Lithuania

  • Abstract

    This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of Covid-19 on unemployment and underemployment in Lithuania. Based on the Labor Force Survey, we document the evolution of the unemployment rate using broader definitions that incorporate the underemployed and marginally attached workers. Our results show that, compared to previous recessions, Covid-19 had a milder impact on the Lithuanian labor market. Moreover, Lithuania fared reasonably well relative to other Eurozone countries. However, the data reveal a substantial increase in marginal workers and underemployment during 2020, with women, young workers and individuals in rural areas being most affected by the pandemic-induced recession.

    Keywords: labor market statistics, labor force, unemployment.

    JEL codes: E24, J21, J64

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

     

     

No 39
2021-10-11

Becoming a data-centric organisation: a guide to data management initiatives at the Bank of Lithuania

  • Abstract

    Central banks worldwide are grappling with issues relating to data. From how to collect and manage data to aspects of governance, analysis, communication and the proliferation of data – the vast variety of these issues is pushing many to consider root-and-branch reforms. The Bank of Lithuania has been one of the leaders in this regard.

    For several years, the Bank of Lithuania has prioritized the development of innovative solutions for streamlining data collection and reporting. These include smart reporting solutions, such as data collection via API, new technologies enabling a switch from aggregate- to granular-level data, and new possibilities for integrating, reusing, and opening up the existing data.

    Recently, we took our data management efforts to an even higher level and embarked on the fast track to becoming a truly data-centric organisation by launching an organisation-wide Data Management Maturity Program (DAMAMA). The program activates far-reaching change across the entire data journey within the organisation: data collection, warehousing, analytics, and data governance.

    This white paper provides an in-depth guide to the recent data management initiatives at the Bank of Lithuania and the range of complex issues that these initiatives help to solve. In addition, this paper presents the ongoing Data Management Maturity Program DAMAMA, transformation areas covered by the program, main objectives and timelines. Lastly, the final section introduces the international context relating to the ongoing efforts of European organisations to harmonise reporting practices across different domains.

    The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

     

No 38
2021-07-22

Non price competitiveness of Lithuanian exports

  • Abstract

    Foreign trade accounts for a significant part of Lithuania’s economy and the growth of export volumes is a common occurrence in Lithuania, even with rapidly growing wages. With a growth in Lithuania’s exports, the share of exports is also increasing. This indicates that Lithuanian-origin goods and services are competitive in the international market. The competitiveness of Lithuanian-origin exports may be of two kinds: based on the price and costs and based on other, non-price, factors. This article examines two methods of exports competitiveness calculation. When examining exports competitiveness based on the first method, standard formulation for the export equation, regressions are drawn up where exports growth is a dependent variable, whereas demand and the real effective exchange rates (reflecting the impact of prices and costs) are independent variables. Residual variance (i.e. random value) is seen as non-price factors that influence exports growth. When examining exports competitiveness based on the second method, exports of goods are analysed more closely, broken down into four competitiveness groups. The results indicate that the competitiveness of Lithuanian-origin exports in 2001-2019 was essentially determined by factors other than price or costs. In other words, the labour cost growth experienced by exporters is not a key factor that influences the competitiveness of Lithuanian-origin exports.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.


    Available only in Lithuanian

No 37
2021-05-24

Joint Debt Arrangements in EMU: From NextGenEU to Eurobonds

  • Abstract

    EU’s landmark Next Generation EU programme is an important step forward in both European crisis response and, more generally, EMU deepening, given that the package features elements of both joint debt issuance and fiscal transfers. This paper analyses the programme in comparison to other most prominent joint EMU debt proposals and provides a comparative Scoreboard of the arrangements discussed. It concludes that Next Generation EU falls short of filling in key gaps in the current architecture of the EMU – in particular, the gap laid bare by the lack of a genuine European safe asset. A true “safe haven” instrument – a Eurobond with joint and several guarantees – could move the EMU into a closer alignment with the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) criteria and help compensate for the macroeconomic intra-euro area imbalances. The guarantee structure of the Eurobond, working as an insurance mechanism for Member States’ sovereign debt, would allow for joint debt to significantly strengthen the euro area’s macroeconomic and market stability, the financial sector, or the international role of the Euro. However, issuance of the Eurobond is associated with important moral hazard, political and legal risks, and would most of all require an unprecedented level of trust by Member States.

    The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.