Bank of Lithuania
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All results 143
No 22
2018-11-14

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision 2017 Basel III Reform’s Review and Impact on European Union Banks’ Capital

  • Abstract

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.


    Available only in Lithuanian

No 52
2018-10-26

Bank credit and money creation in a DSGE model of a small open economy

  • Abstract

    From the bookkeeping perspective, the flipside of bank loan issuance is a simultaneous creation of a deposit in the borrower’s account. By the act of lending banks do not simply intermediate pre-accumulated real resources but rather create new financial resources (money in the form of deposits) and new purchasing power. Being a major driver behind money growth, bank credit directly fuels domestic demand and inflationary pressures and thus needs to be modelled as a monetary phenomenon rather than as a mere reallocation of real resources. To this end, we develop a simple DSGE model and show that the basic DSGE framework, representing an open flexible-price economy with savers and borrowers and a simple bank with an explicit balance sheet, can indeed capture the essence of a bank as a monetary institution. The theoretical model confirms that the financial system is highly elastic in a sense that banks can extend loans at will largely irrespective of pre-accumulated resources and without needing to raise nominal deposit rates or increase financing from abroad. Moreover, in our model, changes in bank credit do have an immediate impact on nominal incomes, domestic demand and real economic activity. Model results are highly relevant from the policy perspective because they explain the fundamental relationship between financial (credit) cycle and the business cycle (e.g. observed income growth can be a consequence of a credit boom) and also suggest that sound domestic banks can stimulate domestic demand and can effectively reduce the developing economy’s reliance on foreign financing. Notably, the model focuses on a small open economy – a member of a monetary union – which thus has no independent monetary policy. We calibrate the model to the Lithuanian data and perform a number of policy-relevant shock experiments.

    JEL Codes: E30, E44, E51, G21.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania. 

No 51
2018-08-29

A century of gaps

  • Abstract

    This paper considers the role of financial information in the estimation and dynamics of the US output gap over more than a century. To this end, we extend the parsimonious approach of Borio, Disyatat, and Juselius (2016, 2014) to allow for time-varying effects of financial factors. This novel feature significantly improves real-time estimates of the output gap. It signals the peak and trough in economic activity related to both the Great Recession and the Great Depression. Two major insights follow. Credit dynamics are the primary drivers of the observed financial crisis, albeit with different conduits over the century: the stock market in 1929 and the housing market in 2008. Accounting for credit growth, the US potential growth has been stable at 2% since the beginning of 1980. 
     
    JEL Codes: C11, C32, E32, O47.
     
    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania. 
     
     
No 50
2018-07-30

Term premium and quantitative easing in a fractionally cointegrated yield curve

  • Abstract

    The co-movement of US sovereign rates suggests a long-run common stochastic trend. Traditional cointegrated systems need to assume that interest rates are unit roots and thus imply non-stationary and non-mean-reverting dynamics. Based on recent econometric developments, we postulate and estimate a fractional cointegrated model (FCVAR) which allows for a mean-reverting stochastic trend. Our results point to the presence of such mean-reverting fractional cointegration among sovereign rates. The implied term premium is less volatile than the classic I(0) stationary and I(1) unit root models. Our analysis highlights the role of real factors (but not inflation) in shaping term premium dynamics. We further identify the dynamic effects of quantitative easing policies on our identified term premium. In contrast to the stationary-implied term premium, we find a significant term premium decline following these large-scale asset purchase programs.

    JEL Codes: C2, C3, E4, G1.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

No 9
2018-06-28

Global temperature, R&D expenditure, and growth

  • Abstract

    We shed new light on the macroeconomic effects of rising temperatures. In the data, a shock to global temperature dampens research and development (R&D) expenditure growth. This novel empirical evidence is rationalised within a stochastic endogenous growth model. In the model, Temperature shocks undermine economic growth via a drop in R&D. Moreover, temperature risk generates welfare costs of 13.50% of lifetime utility. The government can offset these welfare costs by subsidizing investment with 1.02% or R&D expenditure with 0.52% of total public spending, respectively. Alternatively, it can levy a lump-sum tax on households which finances 0.64% of total public spending.

    JEL Codes: E30, G12, Q00.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

No 8
2018-06-20

Network constrained covariate coefficient and connection sign estimation

  • Abstract

    Often, variables are linked to each other via a network. When such a network structure is known, this knowledge can be incorporated into regularized regression settings. In particular, an additional network penalty can be added on top of another penalty term, such as a Lasso penalty. However, when the type of interaction via the network is unknown (that is, whether connections are of an activating or a repressing type), the connection signs have to be estimated simultaneously with the covariate coefficients. This can be done with an algorithm iterating a connection sign estimation step and a covariate coefficient estimation step. We show detailed simulation results of such an algorithm. The algorithm performs well in a variety of settings. We also briefly describe the R-package that we developed for this purpose, which is publicly available.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

No 7
2018-05-14

Firm heterogeneity and macroeconomic dynamics: a datadriven investigation

  • Abstract

    In this paper we offer a unique firm-level view of the empirical regularities underlying the evolution of the Lithuanian economy over the period of 2000 to 2014. Employing a novel data-set, we investigate key distributional moments of both the financial and real characteristics of Lithuanian firms. We focus in particular on the issues related to productivity, firm birth and death and the associated employment creation and destruction across industries, firm sizes and trade status (exporting vs. non-exporting). We refrain from any structural modeling attempt in order to map out the key economic processes across industries and selected firm characteristics. We uncover similar empirical regularities as already highlighted in the literature: trade participation has substantial benefits on firm productivity, the 2008 recession has had a cleansing effect on the non-tradable sector, firm birth and death are highly pro-cyclical. The richness of the dataset allows us to produce additional insights such as the change in the composition of assets and liabilities over the business cycles (tilting both liabilities and assets towards the short-term) or the increasing share of exporting firms but the constant share of importing ones since 2000.

    JEL Codes: D22, D24, E30, J21, J24, J30, L11, L25.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

No 6
2018-05-04

Network-based macro fluctuations: Evidence from Lithuania

  • Abstract

    Do inter-sectoral linkages of intermediate products affect the spread of sectoral shocks at the aggregate level in Lithuania, a small and open economy? We answer this question by: i) constructing the domestic sector-by-sector direct requirements table using the Lithuanian interindustry transactions tables, and ii) applying Acemoglu et al. (2012)'s network-based methodology and Gabaix and Ibragimov (2011)'s modified log rank-log size regression to analyse the nature of inter-sectoral linkages. Our results indicate that the direct and indirect inter-sectoral linkages cause aggregate volatility to decay at a rate lower than √n - the rate predicted by the standard diversification argument. Furthermore, indirect linkages play an important role in the above-mentioned process, supporting the findings of Acemoglu et al. (2012). These results suggest that the inter-sectoral network of linkages represent a potential propagation mechanism for idiosyncratic shocks throughout the Lithuanian economy.

    JEL Codes: C13, C46, C67, E00.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

No 49
2018-04-27

The behavioral economics of currency unions: Economic integration and monetary policy

  • Abstract

    Currency unions are often modeled as homogeneous economies, although they are fundamentally different. The expectations that impact macroeconomic behavior in any given country are not the expectations of variables at the currency-union level but at the country level. We model these expectations with a behavioral reinforcement learning model. In our model, economic integration is of particular importance in determining whether economic behavior in a currency union is stable. Monetary policy alone is insufficient to guarantee stable economic behavior, as the central bank cannot conduct different monetary policies in different countries. These results are easily overlooked when modeling expectations as rational.

    JEL Codes: E03, F45, E52, D84.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

No 21
2018-04-06

Overview of Lithuania’s banking sector sustainability in the post-crisis environment

  • Abstract

    In the aftermath of the financial crisis, Lithuania‘s banking sector faced structural changes related to higher concentration, decreased interconnectedness and lower risk appetite. At the same time banks were able to maintain strong profitability levels measured by the EU standards largely due to increased efficiency, very low funding costs, reduced impairments and stable commission income. This paper describes the banking sector of Lithuania in the post-crisis environment and argues that the post-crisis structural changes in general had positive effects on the banking sector’s resilience and in the first instance on profitability. In particular, high concentration of the sector was likely to help banks achieve higher efficiency while reduced risk tolerance had direct positive effects on lower impairments as well as indirect effects on lower funding costs. On the other hand, good profitability of the sector has been largely dependent on two largest market participants while smaller banks and branches had less prosperous profitability prospects. In the environment where large banks appear to have particularly good cost management practises, the possibilities for entry of new market players of significant size are plausible only if the newcomers are able to reach the prevailing level of high efficiency. However, without a sizeable market share this might be difficult to achieve.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

No 20
2018-04-06

Application of the integrated accounts framework for empirical investigation of the economic and financial cycle in Lithuania

  • Abstract

    By resorting to the analytical integrated accounts framework, this paper investigates the relationship between economic and financial imbalances during the recent economic and financial cycle in Lithuania. There is clear evidence from the financial accounts data that there was a pronounced expansion of balance sheets of institutional sectors during the phase of the economic upturn, whereas the economic downturn was essentially a balance-sheet recession characterised by contracting private sector balance sheets and the reversal in credit flows and monetary dynamics. The boom-and-bust cycle was strongly associated with exuberant bank lending during the boom years, followed by a sudden reversal of lending conditions and the subsequent repatriation of debt financing by foreign banks.
    The Lithuanian experience also confirms that strong credit and asset price boom accompanied by economic imbalances, and debt financing of current account deficits in particular, is a potentially risky mix of economic conditions. The policy response to crisis was a market-imposed austerity but nevertheless there was a sharp rise in public debt, essentially offsetting deleveraging in the private sector. The effective replacement of growth of private sector debt with a rapid accumulation of public debt was a very important stabilising factor.
    Certain characteristics of bank credit (namely, its partial self-financing) imply that under some conditions economic stabilisation could have been achieved through domestic financing. However, the government had to resort to foreign financing, which was rather costly. During the crisis the monetary dynamics was driven by government borrowing from abroad, stepped up capital transfers from abroad and positive current account adjustments, all of which allowed foreign parent banks to withdraw debt financing and replace it with domestic deposit financing.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

No 5
2018-04-06

Credit and money creation from the integrated accounts perspective

  • Abstract

    In this paper we apply the analytical integrated accounts framework to conduct a conceptual analysis of essential macrofinancial linkages. In particular, we analyse the macroeconomic mechanism of the creation of purchasing power through bank credit, explore the partial self-financing property of bank credit and the links between bank credit and money creation, and discuss the role of debt accumulation as a powerful demand-side driver of growth. We argue that creation of money and purchasing power is an indispensable corollary of bank credit issuance. Contrary to conventional wisdom, credit is not predicated on existing savings. It directly adds to domestic demand, which translates into some combination of stronger domestic economic activity, stronger foreign economic activity or higher prices, with particular configuration depending on the structural features of the economy. However, credit-driven growth may result in a systemic over-reliance on continuous debt accumulation and poses the risk of deep structural imbalances and balance sheet recessions.

    JEL Codes: E51, E58, G21.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

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