Bank of Lithuania
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2019-01-02

No 24. Mariarosaria Comunale, Francesco Paolo Mongelli. Euro Area growth and European institutional reforms

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Euro area countries have experienced profound economic, financial and institutional changes over the last three decades. GDP growth has been very volatile, and very uneven, across countries. Which factors played a role in stirring growth and/or reducing it?  We provide an atheoretical toolkit looking at a large set of real, financial, monetary and institutional variables, as possible factors behind fluctuations and differences in growth rates among euro area countries since 1990. The main outcome stresses the key positive role for long-run growth of higher European institutional integration, overall and for the periphery in specific. This result is robust across specifications and setups. If we split the European institutional integration in its main components, we can see a significant positive role for financial and political integration in the long-run. However the first seems to have beneficial effects for the core only while the opposite holds for the political integration which influences positively the periphery.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

Mariarosaria Comunale, Francesco Paolo Mongelli, euro area, GDP growth, Monetary policy, Fiscal policy, institutional integration, financial crisis, systemic stress, synchronization