Bank of Lithuania
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2020-12-30

Global Impacts of US Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks

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We build a new empirical model to estimate the global impact of an increase in the volatility of US monetary policy shocks. Specifically, we admit time-varying variances of local structural shocks from a stochastic volatility specification. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between the endogenous variables and time-varying volatility in the global setting, we find that US interest rate uncertainty not only drives local output and inflation volatility, but also causes declines in output, inflation, and the interest rate.  Moreover, we document strong global impacts, making the world move in a very synchronous way. Crucially, spillback effects are found to be significant even for the US economy.

Keywords: US Monetary Policy, Volatility Shocks, Uncertainty, Global Economy.

JEL Codes: C32, C54, E52, E58, F44.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

uncertainty, US Monetary Policy, Volatility Shocks, Global Economy