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Occasional Paper Series

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Occasional papers feature analytical descriptive or discussion articles and extended commentaries prepared by the Bank of Lithuania staff on subjects relevant for central banking. The papers within the series analyse topical questions and issues relevant to the activities of the Bank of Lithuania, introduce the results of analytical and policy work conducted at the institution, explaining its decisions and opinions. Occasional papers target a wider audience, including policymakers, financial analysts, academics, the media and the general public. 

Papers are available in Lithuanian or English.

No 46
2023-01-30

Micro-assessment of macroprudential borrower-based measures in Lithuania

  • Abstract

    The high-paced growth of the Lithuanian mortgage market may cast doubt on either the efficacy of the country’s macroprudential toolkit, or the appropriateness of its current parametrisation in putting a backstop to excessive dynamics. This paper assesses the adequacy of BBM’s in Lithuania by building a novel lifetime expected credit loss framework that is founded on actual loan-level default and household income data. Based on the modelling framework we document seven findings which are relevant for policymakers. We show that the BBM package effectively contains mortgage credit risk and that housing loans are more resilient to stress than in the pre-regulatory era. Our BBM limit calibration exercise reveals that: i) in the low-interest rate environment income-based measures could have been tighter; ii) borrowers taking out secondary mortgages rightly are and should be required to pledge a higher down payment of at least 30%.

    Keywords: macroprudential policy, borrower-based measures, LTV, mortgage credit risk, lifetime expected credit loss, probability of default.

    JEL Codes: C25, E61, G18, G21, G51.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

No 45
2023-01-16

Combating Climate Change through Policy Instruments. A Meta-Analysis of Carbon Taxation

  • Abstract

    Recently, there has been a surge of interest in policies that target climate change. This paper begins by discussing why policymakers, and central banks in particular, should be concerned about climate change, and goes on to argue why carbon pricing is an appropriate political instrument to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The paper details two categories of carbon pricing, namely carbon taxation and the introduction of Emission Trading Systems (ETSs), illustrating why a carbon tax is the more efficient instrument. Popular models for optimal carbon taxation and implications of carbon taxation are discussed. The paper concludes with recommendations to policymakers, which include advocacy of differentiated rather than uniform carbon taxation, phased-in carbon taxation instead of a blanket approach, introduction of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), and Green Quantitative Easing (QE).

    Keywords: carbon taxation, climate change, green QE.

    JEL Codes: Q54, Q58, H23, E51, E62

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.

No 44
2023-01-13

Wage Growth in Lithuania from 2008 to 2020: Observed Drivers and Underlying Shocks

  • Abstract

    This paper studies the drivers of wage growth in Lithuania over the period 2008-2020. Using administrative data as well as aggregate measures reflecting the state of the economy, we estimate an extended version of a wage Phillips curve. Our reducedform estimates indicate that nominal wage growth was tightly linked to labor market fluctuation over this period. Labor productivity, changes in the minimum wage, and the composition of employment also contributed to wage dynamics. However, we find little evidence that past inflation has been a push factor. To understand the underlying economic primitives behind our findings, we estimate a structural Bayesian autoregressive model. Our structural analysis reveals a significant contribution from aggregate supply shocks, reflecting a stronger relationship between productivity and wages than implied by our reduced-form estimates. Moreover, the historical decomposition reveals that since 2013, wages grew over and above productivity due to rising aggregate demand and labor market disturbances.

No 43
2022-05-20

What drove the rise in bank lending rates in Lithuania during the low-rate era?

  • Abstract

    While Euro area interest rates were responding to accommodative monetary policy and decreasing throughout 2015-19, in stark contrast, Lithuania’s bank lending rates increased. Although the rates have slightly dropped around the onset of the pandemic, they are still elevated and well above the EA figures. This paper calls into question, what were the drivers of such interest rate dynamics in Lithuania? By analysing the historical events and practical aspects of loan pricing in Lithuania’s banking industry, we build an empirical model that exploits lending rate variation across banks, time and lending segments, and maps it to different drivers of pricing. We find that the recent changes in lending rates can be attributed to average bank margins, which moved largely in response to changes in market concentration.

    Keywords: interest rates, loan pricing, banking, concentration, capital requirements.

    JEL Codes: D22, D40, E43, G21, L11.

    The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Lithuania.