Information on Liquidity Situation in the Banking System
Historical data	LTL million
Reserve maintenance period: from 24/12/2014 to 23/01/2015 Reserve requirements in litas for the current maintenance period (1a) -   Reserve requirements in foreign currencies for the current maintenance period (1b) -   Figures as at 01/01/2015: Change per day Average of current account holdings of the banking system during the current maintenance period including 01/01/2015 (2a) ...   Current account holdings of the banking system at the Bank of Lithuania (3a) ...   Litas reserve surplus (+)/shortage (-) over the required reserves (4a) ...   The main factors affecting changes in litas reserve surplus/shortage (increase (+), decrease (-)): Impact of Government deposits (5b)   0.00 Impact of changes in currency in circulation (6b)   0.00 Impact of base currency exchange transactions and other operations between banks and the Bank of Lithuania with banks (7b)   0.00 Impact of the changes in required reserves (8b)   ... Impact of other factors (9b)   0.00 Autonomous liquidity factors: Net foreign assets (10a) 22,918.45   Currency issued into circulation (11a) 5,787.28   Items in the course of settlement (12a) 98.18   Litas Government deposits (13a) 767.04   Other litas net claims to nonresidents and other financial assets (14a) 116.62   Other items (net) (15a) 1,796.47   Forecast of the Banking System reserve excess (shortage)1 Forecast of the average banking system reserve surplus (shortage) for 7 days (02/01/2015 - 08/01/2015) (16a) 0.00   Forecast of the average banking system reserve surplus (shortage) for the whole maintenance period (24/12/2014 - 23/01/2015) (17a) 0.00
1The following factors are included into the forecast of reserves: Impact of government deposits, purchase/sale of currency in circulation, already concluded foreign exchange transactions between banks and the Bank of Lithuania and impact of changes in required reserves Reserves surplus (shortage): 4a=3a-1a Litas reserves of the banking system: 3a=10a-11a-12a-13a-14a-15a Impact of government deposits: 5b=[13a increase (-)/decrease (+)]+[Foreign currency sale(+)/purchase (-) at The Bank of Lithuania]+ [transfers of governmental agencies from (+)/to(-) other depositors non banks accounts at the Bank of Lithuania] Impact of changes of currency in circulation: 6b=[11a increase(-)/decrease(+)]+[12a increase(-)/decrease(+)] The top part of the table (rows 1a and 1b) presents the amount of required reserves of the banking system over the current maintenance period. Then the following data for the last business day are presented: bank reserve holdings and reserve surplus/shortage vis-a-vis required reserves (rows 2�4); main factors affecting changes in reserve surplus/shortage; autonomous factors calculated on the basis of the Bank of Lithuania balance sheet data (rows 10�15); The last part presents the daily-renewed forecast of the average banking system reserve surplus (shortage): average banking system reserve surplus (shortage) for 7 calendar days (16a) and for the whole maintenance period (17a). Reserve surplus (shortage) is forecast by splitting the main autonomous factors and predicting the impact of individual components on bank reserves. For the forecast, Bank of Lithuania data and data received from other sources are used. Ministry of Finance revenues and expenditures are forecast by creating a model with dummy variables on peak payment days, and the impact of the currency in circulation is forecast by applying regression methods. The aim of the forecast is to predict the impact of autonomous factors on bank reserves and not the real future level of reserves; therefore, the reserve forecast includes only those foreign exchange transactions between commercial banks and the Bank of Lithuania which have already been contracted and which have already been settled or will be settled in the future. The forecast does not include potential new commercial bank foreign exchange transactions; therefore, if banks make new transactions, the presented forecast of reserve surplus (shortage) may change. The reserve forecast for the whole period, when it is made at the beginning of the period and until the middle of the period, is rather inaccurate due to the following reasons: the main aim of the forecast is to predict the daily impact of the main autonomous factors on bank reserves and not the overall impact of these factors over the total maintenance period; reserves are affected by new foreign exchange transactions conducted by the banks, which, as mentioned above, are not included in the initial forecast; even a small error at the beginning of the period has a large impact on the accumulated average of the whole period.
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