Archive of the forecasts:
Macroeconomic forecasts 2006-2014
The Bank of Lithuania monitors and analyses the developments and assess the outlook of the Lithuanian economy. Macroeconomic projections are a part of this process, enabling to take a systematic view to the developments of the main macroeconomic indicators both in the short and the medium term as well as to assess the risks associated with these developments.
The Bank of Lithuania macroeconomic projections are a result of both macroeconometric modelling and expert judgement. The projections are first constructed using the structural macroeconometric model that is created, maintained and updated by the Economics Department. The model-based projections are then updated taking into account expert judgement with respect to structural changes and the latest available information about the forthcoming economic shocks.
The Bank of Lithuania macroeconomic projections are conditional on a number of technical assumptions with respect to the world oil price, short-term interbank interest rate and the euro exchange rate against the US dollar. The first two assumptions are derived from market expectations (derived from futures and forward rates respectively). During the projections horizon the euro-dollar exchange rate is held constant at the level of the last data point available at the start of the forecasting exercise. The projections are presented in the form of one – baseline – scenario, also providing a qualitative assessment of the risks surrounding this scenario.